In roughly 40 years from now the city could have more than 800,000 of its residents living in flood zones — an 101% increase from those presently living in flood zones over an area that will cover more than 1/4 of the entire city.  The one to two and a half foot rise from present day sea-level by the 2050′s will not only cause almost 10% of the city to potentially flood at high tide, which occurs twice daily, but help cause the storm surge of a once-in-a-century storm to exceed the record 14-foot storm surge generated by Hurricane Sandy by 5 or more feet.

For those not directly impacted by rising seas in NYC, you get to look forward to a mid-century climate that will resemble the deep south more than what’s outside today. In a city that already sees it’s fair share of unbearable heat during the summer, by 2050 the number of 90-degree days per year in NYC could increase to what is now normal for Birmingham, AL. Even on a daily basis, average temperatures by mid-century could be as much as 7 degrees hotter than today.

In the face of these stark projections, Mayor Bloomberg announced plans today that outline adaptation and resiliency measures to enhance the city’s defenses against human-induced changes in climate that already (notice, this is not a problem for future generations but one we face today) threaten the city’s (and anyone living just about anywhere…) sustainability and livelihood — which will be drastically amplified by mid-century should man-made GHG emissions continue to go unmitigated. In a world that has been historically “reactive” to the impacts of climate change instead of “proactive” in an effort to reduce damages, costs and loss of life, it was a nice breath of fresh air to hear “[we] have to look ahead and anticipate any and all future threats, not only from hurricanes and other coastal storms but also from droughts, heavy downpours and heat waves – many of which are likely to be longer and more intense in the years to come” from the mayor.

While his plan will cost an aggregate of $20 billion over 10 years in what would initially appear to be another typical hefty price tag that those hesitant to address climate change typically point to, it’s essential to take into consideration the reality that Sandy (one storm) cost the city $19 billion in a matter of days, and is estimated to cost $90 billion if a similar storm were to occur roughly 30 years from now.  In a country and world of extreme weather and climate events that are occurring in greater frequency and intensity as a result of man-made climate change — and the overwhelming consensus from climate scientists is that this trend will continue in a warming world –

the cost-benefit analysis makes this plan a sound, viable investment for NYC that can serve as a model for what other cities, states, and even nations should be doing.

If I were a climate change skeptic my standard follow-up question to any case being made for a substantial investment to address impacts of climate change would be “where’s the money for this going to come from?” While I fight the urge to write a few paragraphs addressing the “beliefs” of climate change skeptics (and present the scientific facts), this is a great question, and the answer in this case is yet another reason I love the mayor’s plan. Unlike some comprehensive proposals to address climate change that have hand-wavy explanations as to where the necessary funding would come from, the mayor clearly outlines that roughly half of the investment over a 10-year period will be covered by federal and city money already allocated in the capital budget, and from $5 billion in appropriations already committed to by Congress through programs developed in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. This leaves $5 billion to be accounted for, and while I’m yet to be able to fully absorb the 430-page document it is already widely reported that the plan outlines numerous additional ways to raise funds to account for the remaining cost, and in the grand scheme of things finding an average of  $500 million a year (i.e. less than 0.6% of the NYC’s annual budget) over the next 10 years doesn’t strike me as an insurmountable challenge. Also worth noting is that for each $1 invested in the city’s resiliency to climate change there are monetary savings each time sections of the city are spared from what would be otherwise costly impacts if not for these renovations.

While describing aspects of his new climate plan Mayor Bloomberg’s speech highlighted a key message that needs to be better understood by the American people and other developed countries: climate change is not a problem to be faced by future generations in a third-world country, but is instead a destructive beast that we not only created but injected with steroids and let lose in our own backyard. Looking close enough you might just make out the “S” under the mayor’s shirt or part of the untucked cape showing below his jacket,

but if we’re going to defeat this three-headed monster we’ve all had a hand in creating…

we’ll need more than a super-man to address climate change…we’ll need you.

Which is why I was somewhat surprised (but excited!) to wander into the Foggy Bottom Metro stop in D.C. on Tuesday and be greeted by something that looked like this:

I couldn’t capture the whole ad in my camera phone (especially while trying not to look like some creeper taking a picture of the metro floor during rush hour….) but activist group SumOfUs.org is continuing to fight the good fight not just against Keystone XL, but against the expanded Tar Sands extraction that would come with it.

The ads direct you to the SumOfUs anti-tar-sands site, where they have already collected more than 17,000 of their goal level of 20,000 signatures for a petition to President Obama regarding the pipeline and expanded tar sands extraction.  Rather than solely attacking Keystone XL, the group is focusing on the impacts of the recent ExxonMobil tar sands oil spill in Arkansas.  Exxon’s response to the spill has been heavily criticized, with many community members voicing their doubts that the spill is contained or that Exxon is truly doing their part to take responsibility for the spill, contain it, and mitigate damages.

While the Keystone XL pipeline is likely to be decided by politics and not environmental impacts, the statement made by SumOfUs here is clear – and is taking the debate one step farther.  Instead of focusing on the impacts of the pipeline alone, the group is working to inform regarding some of the inherent risks (both environmental and economic) to expanded tar sands oil use as an energy source.  I’m happy to see these ads placed front and center in several key metro stations – maybe it’s a chance to finally have some dialogue about the real issue here, which is the overall direction of our energy future, and not one single pipeline. 

A born and raised Virginian who’s family ties to the state date back far enough that my first name comes from an ancestor who was a nurse (fun childhood growing up as a boy with a girls name…) at Bull Run during the Civil War, you could say I think the most populated state WITHOUT a major sports franchise (how is this possible?!) is kind of a big deal. So while I keep track of all things Virginia personally and all things climate and weather professionally, I somehow overlooked how sea-level rise has been impacting the state until my trip to Sandbridge, VA this week.  My oversight of these local scale impacts of climate change highlight a common misperception throughout the United States that impacts of climate change are a next generation or third-world country problem. The reality is that the costs and impacts of climate change are already draining our wallets and are in our backyards, have been for some time, and will become more amplified the longer we wait to comprehensively address the issue both domestically and abroad.

As for my “awakening” to the issue in VA, turns out that sea-level rise is occurring faster in the Hampton Roads area than anywhere along the East Coast, rising 14.5 inches in the last 80 years — 80% more than the 8 inches of average global sea level rise over the last 140 years.  The rising sea combined with sinking land (in part due to a ginormous crater caused by a meteor, which actually created the Chesapeake Bay) along the Virginia coast has been threatening the existence of coastal communities like Sandbridge, VA for decades, resulting in local home owners now paying a special tax that funds beach renourishment projects critical to their survival. What is beach renourishment you ask? Well, the short version is a multi-million dollar operation that takes place all 24 hours of the day in front of the beach house you rented for a week without being given any notice by the real estate company eight months ago when you made the reservations (any lawyers reading this?).

The project I’ve been given a front row seat to this week has a price tag of $15 million. So while enjoying my beachfront view of porta johns and pipes these last few days I was inspired to dig deeper into sea-level rise and how it’s impacting the state.  A bit choppy due to intermittent breaks for beer pong, Canasta, and making a family Harlem Shake video, but here we go:

Hampton Roads possesses the second largest concentration of military capacity and activities in the United States, and is home to the world’s largest naval base – Naval Station Norfolk. According to the former Commanding Officer of Naval Station Norfolk, Joe Bouchard, almost all major military facilities in Hampton Roads are threatened by sea-level rise, and as sea level continues to rise so will the likelihood that some of those facilities will need to be relocated. Since 46% of the local economy comes from Department of Defense spending, this makes Hampton Roads uniquely vulnerable to sea-level rise. In addition, the Hampton Roads area is second only to New Orleans, LA, as the largest population center at risk from sea-level rise in the country.

Virginia’s state and local governments have recently taken the initiative to assess the threat of sea-level rise and increased coastal flooding, but it’s clear that much more is needed. If Virginia’s coastal communities are to withstand rising seas in the coming decades, initiatives that proactively address the threat of sea-level rise will be necessary. This is especially important around Hampton Roads, given that around half of historical sea-level rise in the area has been from the sinking of land (i.e., subsidence), which is anticipated to remain constant in the region while sea-level rise caused by climate change is expected to accelerate in the future.

VIRGINIA’S VULNERABILITY AND COST ESTIMATES

- Hampton Roads is second only to New Orleans as the area in the country most impacted by sea-level rise.

- The Norfolk-Virginia Beach Metropolitan Area ranks 10th in the world in value of assets exposed to an increase in flooding from sea-level rise.

- The 1933 hurricane – widely known as the “Storm of the Century” – was significantly more powerful than Hurricane Isabel in 2003. While the 1933 hurricane produced a storm surge in Hampton Roads 21 percent higher than Isabel, the maximum water level for both storms was roughly the same. This was a result of the average monthly sea level being 1.4 feet higher during Hurricane Isabel than during the 1933 hurricane, which was mostly due to the increase in sea-level rise that occurred in the 70 years between the two storms.

- Although Hurricane Isabel made landfall in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, Virginia still experienced $925 million in damages to insured properties.

- According to the former Commanding Officer of Naval Station Norfolk, Joe Bouchard, the base would need to spend up to $460 million to replace old piers already degraded by sea-level rise and hundreds of millions more to protect onshore infrastructure critical to the base’s maintenance, training, and logistics missions.

- Ron Williams Jr., Assistant City Manager of Norfolk, said the city needs a total investment of $1 billion in the coming decades, including $600 million to replace current infrastructure, to keep the water in its place and help make homes and businesses more resilient.

- Paul Fraim, Mayor of Norfolk:“We deal with storm­water flooding in the city now on a monthly basis.”19 “A severe Category 2 or Category 3 storm, if we were to receive a direct hit, almost all of the city would be underwater.”

- According to the recent Old Dominion University study “Climate Change, Global Warming and Ocean Levels,” when assuming a mid-range estimate of a 3.7-foot increase in local sea level by 2100: “From north to south, vast areas of Mathews, Gloucester and York counties, most of Poquoson, and much of the cities of Hampton, Norfolk, Chesapeake and the Virginia Beach oceanfront will be under­water unless protected by dikes and levees.”

- According to a recent study by the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission (HRPDC), costs from three feet of sea-level rise in the Hampton Roads region are expected to range between $12 billion and $87 billion.

LOCAL CONCERNS AND GOVERNMENT RESPONSES TO SEA-LEVEL RISE

During a project led by the University of Virginia’s Institute for Environmental Negotiation, Virginia Beach residents surveyed about sea-level rise stated that the issue:

- Is a long-term problem – 98%

- Should be a priority for local governments – 92%

- Requires immediate action to be taken to deal with the effects – 86%

- Is a very important issue in the Virginia Beach area – 86%

An HRPDC study focused on analyzing the potential future impacts of sea-level rise on the region’s population, built environment, infrastructure, economy, and natural environment.

Key Findings

Residents currently living in or near areas that could be inundated, permanently or regularly, by 3 feet of sea-level rise:

- Low estimate: 59,059 residents (or the equivalent of more than four times the estimated population of Williamsburg, VA)

- High estimate: 176,124 residents (or the equiva­lent of 84 percent of the estimated population of Richmond, VA)

Roads currently in or near areas that could be inundated, permanently or regularly, by 3 feet of sea-level rise:

- Low estimate: 162 miles (or more miles than driving from Charlottesville, VA to Newport News, VA)

- High estimate: 877 miles (or more than four times the miles travelled when driving from Washington, DC to Virginia Beach, VA)

I came across this Top Ten List on the benefits of local food from Fox News (omg yes Fox News, everything is ok). You can find the full list here, but here are a few of my favorites:

1. Locally grown. Items at farmer’s markets have not “travelled” far. The carbon footprint to transport from nearby farms is teeny compared to what’s consumed over hundreds and thousands of miles by sea, air or long-distance trucking. Also, local produce is stacked in wooden crates, which avoids the environmentally polluting packaging, which protects produce from bruising or extends its time before perishing in long-distance transport.

2. Cleaner and safer. Farmer’s markets produce is grown organically or with far less use of chemicals. Produce sold in regular stores is full of toxic pesticides, fungicides, and other chemical fertilizers and sprays. Similarly, breads & baked goods aren’t pumped full of unhealthy preservatives that extend shelf life.

3. Keeps our communities healthy, too. The more we support local farmers who grow food in healthy ways, the more they–and their beautiful farmland–will flourish. Buying at local markets puts money directly into the pockets of local farmers and craftspeople rather than industrial conglomerates.

4. Free exercise. We can often walk or bike to the markets, getting free exercise. Besides, simply walking in the open air is a good way to get vitamin D.

Lastly, on biking and how it does a body good (which I’m sure you’re in the know about), D.C.’s Capital Bikeshare company released the results of its recent membership survey.  I admit I have a love affair with Capital Bikeshare; although its riders may be nuts, I appreciate what the company has accomplished (remember when I posted about Capital Bikeshare last year?). Riders saved an estimated $800 on transportation costs annually!  After obtaining a membership they were 76% more likely to ride to work.  Membership is still mostly within D.C., and now the company hopes to expand to areas like the Anacostia (Northeast D.C.) so that those neighborhoods can see the health benefits as well.  All communities should have access to safe and healthy transportation options.

Here is a summary of a few of the health benefits from the bikeshare survey: “Nearly 27 percent reported improved stamina after joining the system, 31.5 percent said their stress levels diminished, and 18.4 percent reported losing weight thanks to bicycle sharing. The numbers of members who consider themselves in good or excellent condition increased, while figures for those who consider themselves in poor, average, or fair health decreased.”  You can read the full article here.

Enjoy those tasty local foods, and bike/walk/public transit more. Cheers.

CO2 levels as measured at Mauna Loa, HI. Concentration in ppm.

While much of the news media and public opinion portrays the causes of this as up for scientific debate, a study conducted by skepticalscience.com that reviewed over 12,000 scientific papers from 1991 – 2011 found that fully 97% of the worldwide scientific community considers this warming to be anthropogenic. 

Let me repeat that: 97% of published, peer-reviewed scientific papers agree that global warming is caused by humans.  This is such a big deal that even Barack Obama tweeted about it. 

It gets better – or worse.

Remember during this past campaign year, when then-Presidential candidate Mitt Romney said the following?

“My view is that we don’t know what’s causing climate change on this planet,” he said, according to CBS. “And the idea of spending trillions and trillions of dollars to try to reduce CO2 emissions is not the right course for us.”

Well, Mitt – turns out there’s a saying about an ounce of prevention.  A United Nations report today indicated that during the past decade, losses from natural disasters have exceeded $2.5 trillion dollars worldwide.  Paying for the results of climate-related disasters cost the American taxpayer more in 2012 than any other non-defense, discretionary budget item – totaling around $100 billion.  Just during the past two years (2011 – 2012) there were more than twenty five climate related disasters (storms, heat waves, drought, and other extreme events) that cost upwards of $1 billion each.  

There’s a message in here, and it’s not that the world is ending.  The truth is, we can’t afford climate change.  Maybe not everyone is going to care about hundreds of species that may go extinct from the impacts of shifting temperatures and water patterns.  Maybe not everyone cares about the destruction of coral reefs from climate related ocean acidification or the loss of tropical islands such as the Pearl Cays or Kiribati.

But $2.5 trillion is hard to argue with – especially when 97% of experts agree that it’s our fault.  Maybe, just maybe, it’s finally time to do something about it.

Most you know by now that I’m a regular bike commuter – something which I love, but which is not exactly free of certain perils.  Just two days ago, I was two blocks from my apartment when some #*((#*&&^ neighbor decided to creep up behind me, rev his engine, then swerve around me – coming within four inches of my right pedal and almost sideswiping a parked car in the process.  As he nearly knocked me over, he also saw fit to flip me the bird and yell, “Get out of the road!!” The best part?  We were in front of an elementary school and local park/playground. I seriously hope that there is some logical explanation for this behavior (maybe he really had to pee?), but sadly it isn’t the only time it’s happened.  

While we can’t eliminate all the a**holes in DC (oh, how I wish…), there are certain things you can do as a biker to minimize your risk of incidents. Here’s my (very short) list for those of you biking to work tomorrow, as well as some much more well developed resources:

(1) DC and Arlington County are very bike friendly places, but understand where you belong.  When you are a biker, you are considered a vehicle.  Let me repeat that for all of you, both bikers and drivers: bikes are considered vehicles. So, all you jerks who think we should be on sidewalks….do you drive your car on a sidewalk? No, you don’t.  We don’t ride our bikes there either.  But, for all of you crazy bikers, this means behaving the way that a car would.  Take up a whole lane- just do it, and let the aggravated folks behind you suck it up.  They are required by law to give three feet on all sides, and there’s nowhere in the city where you need to be going *that* fast.

(2) Pedal Predictably.  Signal when you’re about to turn. Don’t swerve between cars, as tempting as it is in heavy traffic. Stop completely for stop signs and red lights.  Check for pedestrians and turning cars. The usual.  It’s amazing how well people do this when they drive, but forget immediately once on a bike.  I know it’s tempting to just zip ahead of traffic, but that’s how most collisions occur – and if a car hits you, even if they’re the one who is wrong, you’re the one  getting hurt.

(3) Be proactive and be prepared.  This means make sure your bike is in good working order and not doing strange things like slipping gears that could cause you to move unpredictably in heavy traffic.  Check your tires and gears before you head out on the road.  Helmet and lights are a must.  Seriously – I’ve had several friends involved in collisions where a helmet saved their life.  Carry the things you might need for simple repairs on long rides.

For more details on any of these points, and to be a better biker, check out any of the following awesome resources.  The DC Metro Area is one of the worst places in the country for traffic, and it’s great to be a biker around here – just be sure to be safe and enjoy the ride!

Potomac Peddlers, List of DC, Maryland, and VA Bike Laws: http://www.potomacpedalers.org/?page=bikelaws

Bike Arlington, and Bike Arlington’s PDF Document on Bike Safety: http://www.bikearlington.com/

http://www.bikearlington.com/tasks/sites/bike/assets/File/Safe_Bicycling.pdf

Capital Bikeshare Bike Safety Resources:

http://www.capitalbikeshare.com/safety

As you guys know, I have a serious thing for the Tesla Model S.  I mean – just look at it.

This image is probably copyrighted, so I’ll just write here that clearly I didn’t take this picture. I also don’t own a Tesla, which is sad. SOMEDAY.

Well, chappies, it seems I am not the only one who has a thing for the Model S.  It’s been a banner week for the budding company, and despite some bad press from a highly shady NYTimes review (which the company rebutted), Tesla not only posted an unexpected profit in the first quarter of 2013 but has increased their estimated sales of the Model S from 20,000 to 21,000. Not only that, but Consumer Reports review of the car earned an astonishing score of 99 out of 100 in the latest review - the only point deducted for the fact that the car takes longer than 3 minutes to recharge on long drives.  In the first quarter of 2013, the Tesla Model S outsold similarly-priced gasoline guzzlers from German luxury car manufacturers Mercedes, Audi, and BMW.  

The success of Tesla is a huge PR boost for eco-friendly startups, which have been plagued in the press by highly-profiled failure stories of a few notable electric car manufacturers and alternative energy companies.  It’s been depressing to watch the faltering progress of a few companies be used by closed-minded individuals in the press and political forums to argue that environmentally innovative businesses don’t have a place in the mainstream or can’t compete with established companies (which is both false, and a logical fallacy.)  Tesla is bucking the naysayers and even exceeding the performance predicted by Wall Street.  What’s even better about Tesla is that they’re also changing the image of what an innovative, environmentally friendly product can look like.  It’s an American brand.  It’s a luxury car.  It’s a sweet ride that looks every bit as sexy as other high-end cars.  It doesn’t compromise on performance. 

And that, my friends, is what environmental innovation should look like.  We can do it better, and it doesn’t mean giving up on the things we love.  It just means being more thoughtful about how we do them.

Bloomberg reported on a few new studies which have shown major increases in bicycle riding (did you know that D.C.’s bike share program broke a record for most bikes rented since its inception during this year’s Cherry Blossom festival – thank you tourists!), walking destinations, and a decrease in receipt of driver’s licenses. There are also your common contributing factors such as unemployment and high gas prices. A Frontier Group study published in April 2012 found the following:

From 2001 to 2009, 16- to 34-year-olds took 24 percent more bike trips and were 16 percent more likely to walk to their destinations. Meanwhile, from 2000 to 2010, the share of 14- to 34-year-olds without drivers’ licenses increased from 21 percent to 26 percent.

In summary, the 34 and younger crowd loves to live where they can walk, bike, or take public transportation (the Bloomberg article said that too).  I know in D.C. those are all top selling points for many homeowners and renters, as I’m sure it is for other cities too. Encourage your local decision makers to improve bike lanes and public transportation in your neighborhood so that you’re not always in a car.  I know it’s easier said then done, so at least think of all the tiny switches you can make in your daily routine to change up your long car habits. Check out Craigslist for bike ads, ask your neighbors and friends to do a walking or running group, or even better search online for your town’s bus schedule.  It could never hurt.  It will save you money, and exercise is always good for your health.

When you do go for a walk, here’s some proper form from the Mayo Clinic:

Hope you did your part for Earth Day this year. Cheers.

Here is my Top 10 List of things you should do this Earth Day:

1. Take your trash out and dump it in the closest park near your home
2. Go for a very long drive, in a Land Rover
3. Pour some hazardous chemicals in your street drain
4. Cut down one tree for every year of your age
5. Start a bonfire with random materials like Styrofoam, asbestos and tires
6. Throw some grocery store plastic bags in the ocean or river near your house
7. Make sure your house is being supplied by oil or coal power ONLY
8.  Spray extra untested pesticides on your fruit and vegetables
9. Sit idle all day, don’t even move to refill your soda, keep the soda bottle at your feet
10. Put your newspapers , junk mail, and cardboard boxes in your regular trash; actually put those in the bonfire, see #5

I hope those gave you a laugh.  Continue to enjoy and appreciate the outdoors, use public transportation, and only use the energy you really need – you’ll find it will save you money and it will be better for your health! Have a great day!

Actually, they look exactly like this. Photo from http://about.hm.com/AboutSection/en/About/Sustainability.html

The re-branding of H&M has been met with a certain degree of skepticism, it seems.  H&M brands are one of the largest providers of bulk- and by definition budget – fashion.  That tends to be synonymous with cheap production practices, from labor to water use to sources of raw materials such as cotton.  However, the brand’s report from March 2013 showing their performance for the past year does boast some impressive stats.  They are the biggest user of certified organic cotton in the world and have been reducing the water and toxic chemical use in their production processes, saving 450 million gallons of water during 2012.  Their initiative also includes social justice measures to ensure fare wages, education, benefits, and equal opportunity for employees. 

Whether it’s greenwashing or real change probably depends on your perspective at this point – I’m sure some purists would love to see the changes happening more quickly and to more stringent standards.  However, I’ll come down on the side of applauding this move.  The public perception of ‘organic’ and ‘green’ brands- from household goods to food to fashion – has long been that they are overpriced alternatives with production standards too high for large corporations and price tags too high for the average consumer.  While many see the benefit, it seems to come with a high cost that is passed on to the buyer.  H&M is working to change that, showing that it is possible to have affordable products produced the right way.  It’s also great to see a retailer offering an opportunity for clothing to be donated or recycled in-store, keeping perfectly useable (or reusable) items out of landfills.  Let’s hope they continue to move in the right direction!